I have put together this simple graph based on the following assumptions:
- Weekly induction of autophagy i.e. Sat or Sat & Sun
- Initial viral load = 100%. (This could represent perhaps 1000 virions per infected cell.)
- Assuming autophagy is able to clear 20% of the virions and/or viral debris from the cells each week.
It is clear from the graph that there is a significant tail to the viral infection. While it is relatively easy to dramatically decrease the viral load at 1 month (41%) and 2 months (17%), getting rid of all the virus or viral debris can take much longer. For example assuming 20% net clearance each week, at 16 weeks, there is still 2.8% of the original viral load. At 20 weeks there is 1.2% of the original viral load. 1.2 % of 1000 virions is still 12 virions!!!
Now, of course the 20% net viral clearance per week is just an educated guess. Perhaps a SWAG, scientific wild-ass guess. But even if the actual rate is 10% or 30% per week, the general shape of the graph remains the same. The basic point is that it can take a long time to completely clear the virus.
The basal rate of autophagy is known to decline with increasing age and obesity. The implication is that older people and obese people are going to have a harder time getting rid of this virus than younger people without specifically inducing autophagy.